Fitting maximum-entropy models on large sample spaces

This thesis investigates the iterative application of Monte Carlo methods to the problem of parameter estimation for models of maximum entropy, minimum divergence, and maximum likelihood among the class of exponential-family densities. It describes a suite of tools for applying such models to large domains in which exact computation is not practically possible. The first result is a derivation of estimators for the Lagrange dual of the entropy and its gradient using importance sampling from a measure on the same probability space or its image under the transformation induced by the canonical sufficient statistic. This yields two benefits. One is the flexibility to choose an auxiliary distribution for sampling that reduces the standard error of the estimates for a given sample size. The other is the opportunity to re-weight a fixed sample iteratively to reduce the computational burden for each iteration. The second result is a derivation of matrix-vector expressions for these estimators. Importance-sampling estimates of the entropy dual and its gradient can be computed efficiently from a fixed sample; the computation is dominated by two matrix-vector products involving the same matrix of sample statistics. The third result is an experimental study of the application of these estimators to the problem of estimating whole-sentence language models. The use of importance sampling in conjunction with sample-path optimization is feasible whenever the auxiliary distribution does not too severely under-represent any linguistic features under constraint. Parameter estimation is rapid, requiring a few minutes with a 2006-vintage computer to fit models under hundreds of thousands of constraints. The procedure is most effective when used to minimize divergence (relative entropy) from existing baseline models, such as n-grams estimated by traditional means, rather than to maximize entropy under constraints on the probabilities of rare n-grams.